The demographic situation is not predetermined, at least not completely. For centuries, policies have been able to influence fertility, and migration has been able to transform a country, as the US experience shows. But over shorter time horizons, demographic trends should be taken for granted, and these trends can have a strong impact on economic growth. And yet, in economic reporting, demographic factors are often ignored, which leads to significant distortions in assessing the economic success of states. Nowhere is this more evident than in Japan.
Since 2000, Japan's real GDP (a key indicator of the economy) has grown by only 15%, a growth rate of less than 1% per year. It is easy to conclude that among the largest economies, Japan is the least dynamically developing. But if you take into account Japanese demographics (since the beginning of the century, the working-age population has declined by almost 1% annually), then its performance will be outstanding.
Moreover, per capita of the working-age population, Japan's growth rate was close to 2%, much higher than the US or Europe. Although the US economy has grown by more than 35% since 2000, the country's working-age population has also grown significantly, so the annual growth rate per capita of the working-age population there has been approximately 1%.
This indicator—the economic growth rate per capita of the working population—is not very widely used by economists; they prefer to pay attention to per capita GDP. Judging by this indicator, the situation in Japan is approximately the same as in Europe and the USA. But while per capita indicators are useful for assessing a country's consumption potential, they do not provide an adequate picture of economic growth potential because they include older people and children who do not contribute to production. Even in Japan, where life expectancy is very high, people over 70 do not contribute much to GDP growth.
As a result, against the backdrop of Japan's rapidly declining economic potential, its performance looks incredibly successful. The main reason for this success is that Japan is increasing the share of its working-age population that is working: unemployment today is at a record low of less than 3%, with almost 80% of the working-age population employed, compared with about 70% in Europe and the United States.
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The fact that Japan has achieved full employment and experienced high rates of job creation growth over the past two decades is especially remarkable given the almost constant deflation during this period (many prices in the country are still lower than they were 15-20 years ago). years ago). Those who argue that deflation imposes unaffordable economic costs should think about this fact.
Europe, where the demographic future looks very similar to Japan's past, can learn important lessons from the Japanese experience. The working-age population in the eurozone has stopped growing altogether in recent years, and will soon begin to decline at the same rate as in Japan in recent decades. It seems unlikely that immigration will reverse this trend. Europeans, like the Japanese, have an extremely negative attitude towards immigration on a large scale, which is necessary to compensate for demographic decline.
In addition, the current account surplus in the eurozone is now stable at around 3% of GDP. And this is close to the level that has long been observed in Japan (with the exception of a short period after the 2011 nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant).
The first lesson from Japan is that despite the eurozone's difficulties in raising inflation in an aging, oversaving society, economic growth is not unattainable. On the contrary, the fact that Japan is growing without inflation should force the European Central Bank to admit that its inflation target (around 2%) may not be that important after all. In any case, due to the nature of the eurozone's structure, the ECB will have no choice but to stop bond-buying operations in about a year. This means that the ECB will not be able to follow in the footsteps of the Bank of Japan, which continues to buy large amounts of government bonds without causing any noticeable spikes in inflation.
Another lesson from Japan is that a country with a large savings surplus can handle large public debt because it can be financed from domestic resources. This does not mean that inflating debt is desirable. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeds 150% of GDP (including the large financial assets of public savings institutions) and continues to rise due to large budget deficits.
This brings us to Japan's final major lesson: In a low-growth economy, the debt-to-GDP ratio can quickly spiral out of control. Fortunately, this last lesson appears to have been learned: the average budget deficit in the eurozone is now around 2% of GDP. It must be assumed that the maximum deficit size established by the Stability and Growth Pact (3% of GDP) had a certain influence on the stabilization of debt ratios in Europe.
The structure of the eurozone creates restrictions on the use of fiscal and monetary policy measures. This prevents the eurozone from building up unnecessary debt, ultimately making it easier to manage the future—a future in which the only way to keep an economy growing is to make fuller use of its shrinking demographic potential.
InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial staff.
High social engagement
Japan is a country where the birth rate has been declining for several decades. With a population of 126 million people (2021 data), mortality has been exceeding the birth rate for several years, the authors of the study state. According to the situation for the past year, the number of deaths in the country exceeded the number of births by almost 149 thousand people. At the same time, life expectancy remains high and amounts to 80 years for men and 88.4 years for women.
The authors of the work note that the Japanese by nature remain workaholics, and society’s priorities are such that a successful career comes first. In this regard, the Japanese pay insufficient attention to creating a family and having children.
In surveys of the country's residents, it turned out that only a quarter of young people aged 18 to 39 years have experience of intimate life (data for 2015). Currently, there are an average of only 1.4 children per family, which, naturally, does not in any way contribute to the natural reproduction of the country’s population, the report notes.
For comparison, the authors of the study provide statistics for the United States, where young people begin intimate life quite early. For example, among the girls surveyed aged 30 to 34, only 1.9%, and among those aged 35 to 39 - 0.9%, had no experience of sexual relations. Young men in these age categories are somewhat more passive than their partners, respectively - 3.1% and 1.4%.
In 2005, a historical record for the minimum TFR was set: 1.26.
If you look at the dynamics of the birth rate in Japan after the end of World War II, the decline in TFR continued. In 1966 there was a sudden, even surprising, drop to 1.58, down 25% from the previous year. This happened because 1966 was the year of the Fire Horse (*3), and plans for having children were shifted.
However, concerns among demographic experts increased in 1989, when the TFR dropped to 1.57 (compared to 1.58, the 1966 low). This period was called the “1.57 Shock.” The decline in TFR continued after this, and in 2006 reached a historical low of 1.26. Then there was a certain tendency to restore previous indicators, but this did not slow down the decline in the birth rate.
The reasons for low fertility are varied. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare speaks of an increase in the cost of giving birth and raising a child, as well as the acceleration of the process of women’s entry into public work due to the introduction of the Law on Ensuring Equal Opportunities for Working Men and Women in 1986. Usually this is a whole tangle of intricate reasons, such as late marriage, non-marriage, increasing levels of women's education, deteriorating economic conditions, changing living conditions, social customs and foundations, as well as other factors. Japan has developed measures to improve the birth rate, but they have not led to decisive action, and without addressing these problems it is extremely difficult to implement big changes.
Parenting
The Japanese method of raising children is a direct continuation of the rules of politeness of the population of this country. Foreigners are surprised that Japanese children almost never cry - they are simply not given a reason to do so. After all, babies usually cry because of hunger, thirst, discomfort or loneliness, so the mother, up to two years of age, vigilantly looks after the child, not letting go of her even an inch.
They do not try to limit the child in anything, teaching him to a routine. As a child, the child hears only warnings that something may be wrong, dangerous or unpleasant. As a result, such warnings are embedded in him at the subconscious level. The child is not given a reason to cry, but at the same time he is not at all pampered, as it may seem from the outside. They usually do not react to bad behavior, preferring to educate through alienation. Children understand early that inappropriate behavior will cause ridicule and rejection from the team.
At school, children face their first restrictions. They are taught to be careful in matters of their own and others’ honor, avoiding situations that discredit their dignity. During this period, each child begins to control his behavior, because he realizes that self-indulgence becomes unacceptable in his new position in society. Since childhood, the Japanese have been taught that duty to the nation is the most important thing in life, and for the sake of it, fleeting entertainment should be rejected.
Small number of emigrants
It should be noted right away that low rates of incoming migration are very good for preserving national identity. However, so few people move to Japan for permanent residence that they have virtually no impact on overall demographic statistics.
What is the reason? Many people want to live in the Land of the Rising Sun, but it is quite difficult to obtain the necessary documents. Plus, strangers are not very welcome here, and even after learning the language, integrating into society will be problematic.
Japan's population will be 97 million in 2050
Among the various economic forecasts, the population forecast is considered to be the most accurate.
According to future population calculations carried out every five years by the National Institute of Demographic and Welfare Research based on census results, Japan's total population has begun to decline after peaking at 128 million in 2010, and is expected to reach its peak by 2040. year it will be 107 million 280 thousand people, which is 20 million lower than now. According to calculations by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, the population will fall to 97 million people in 2050, falling below the hundred million mark. Population decline poses a threat to the development of society from various points of view, even if we do not look too far ahead. Due to a decrease in the working-age population (from 15 to 64 years old), hidden growth opportunities disappear and GDP decreases. It is becoming difficult to maintain the social security system, and in particular the pension system. There are fears of a decline in the standard of living of the population. Reports have been published suggesting that in regions experiencing declining birth rates, aging societies and declining populations, there is the potential for the emergence of administrative units that are at risk of extinction due to population decline.
The policy's trump card against population decline is improving fertility rates. As of 2013, the total fertility rate (*1) in Japan (hereinafter referred to as TFR), which reflects the average number of children a woman gives birth to during her lifetime, was 1.43. To maintain the population, this indicator must be 2.07-2.08, and it is called the “population replacement level” (*2). If it remains below this level, the population decline, as calculations show, will continue.
Atomization of the population
The Japanese have never been a particularly united nation. This was facilitated by clan wars that lasted here for hundreds of years, and forced hostility towards outsiders.
Now, armed conflicts have been replaced by high work pressures and a variety of electronic entertainment. As a result, people communicate little with each other, even within families. And this, according to recent studies, also has a negative impact on demographics.
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Emigration policy of the Japanese government
Developed countries like the USA, Germany and Canada have found a solution to the problem of aging people by revising their immigration policy. Unfortunately, the Japanese do not consider this option - 99% are indigenous people. These people care about preserving ancient traditions and culture, keeping the crime rate low, and preventing crimes by citizens. Most foreigners are not familiar with the culture and customs, so they do not fit in here.
The majority of Japanese immigrants are Korean (0.5%) and Chinese (0.4%).
Gender and age structure[edit | edit code]
- Left: men
- Right: women.
- Y-axis: age
- Abscissa axis: quantity (in tens of thousands)
| 1920 | 1925 | 1930 | 1935 |
| 1940 | 1945 | 1950 | 1955 |
| 1960 | 1965 | 1970 | 1975 |
| 1980 | 1985 | 1990 | 1995 |
| 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 |
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- 2019-10-01 (estimate)
